Retrospective: "Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'"
More on the BBC and climate alarmism versus reality
Dear Church Leaders (and everyone else)
Further to other posts on climate and the BBC…
…you may recall headlines such as this one from 15-20 years ago:
Modelling
That article from Jonathan Amos, a science correspondent with the BBC since 1994, opened with these words:
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.
Ah yes, modelling studies — always good for dramatic and fear-mongering headlines, such as the examples cited here.
The modelling studies in question were those of Professor Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California. At the time of writing, he had told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes driving ice loss. And, in the context of then-recent data, he told the BBC that…1
…you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.
Maslowski’s group, which included…
…co-workers at Nasa and the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS)
…was…
…well known for producing modelled dates that are in advance of other teams [which had] variously produced dates for an open summer ocean that, broadly speaking, go out from about 2040 to 2100.
But Maslowski believed that those models had seriously underestimated some key melting processes.
It’s a bit late in the day to check now, but I do wonder where Maslowski’s group were getting their funding.
Prof Peter Wadhams
The article also featured these words of Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University, introduced as “an expert on Arctic ice”:
In the end, [the Arctic ice] will just melt away quite suddenly
To be fair, his quotation in full is not quite so dramatic:
Some models have not been taking proper account of the physical processes that go on. The ice is thinning faster than it is shrinking; and some modellers have been assuming the ice was a rather thick slab.
Wieslaw’s model is more efficient because it works with data and it takes account of processes that happen internally in the ice…
The implication is that this is not a cycle, not just a fluctuation. The loss this year will precondition the ice for the same thing to happen again next year, only worse.
There will be even more opening up, even more absorption and even more melting.
In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040.
But it seems that Prof Wadhams is hardly a middle-of-the-road expert on Arctic ice.
In 2016 — three years on from 2013 — his pessimism appeared undimmed in this interview for The Guardian:
When challenged by the interviewer…
You have said on several occasions that summer Arctic sea ice would disappear by the middle of this decade. It hasn’t. Are you being alarmist?
…Prof Wadhams replied:
No. There is a clear trend down to zero for summer cover. However, each year chance events can give a boost to ice cover or take some away. The overall trend is a very strong downward one, however.
Most people expect this year [2016] will see a record low in the Arctic’s summer sea-ice cover. Next year or the year after that, I think it will be free of ice in summer and by that I mean the central Arctic will be ice-free. You will be able to cross over the north pole by ship.
There will still be about a million square kilometres of ice in the Arctic in summer but it will be packed into various nooks and crannies along the Northwest Passage and along bits of the Canadian coastline. Ice-free means the central basin of the Arctic will be ice-free and I think that that is going to happen in summer 2017 or 2018.
But according to this analysis at Climate Feedback:
Seven scientists analyzed the article and estimated its overall scientific credibility to be ‘low’.
And:
A majority of reviewers tagged the article as: Alarmist, Misleading.
As we shall see, they weren’t wrong.
Al Gore
Jonathan Amos finished his article by stating that:
Former US Vice President Al Gore cited Professor Maslowski’s analysis on Monday in his acceptance speech at the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony in Oslo.
Which appears to be correct. Here’s a clip with transcript below:
Last September 21, as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented distress that the North Polar ice cap is “falling off a cliff.” One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years.
Seven years from now.
You can still watch (or read) the whole speech here:
But it is worth noting that, according to this article:2
As Bloomberg News reported, “In the last personal finance report he filed as vice president, Gore disclosed on May 22, 2000, that the value of his assets totaled between $780,000 and $1.9 million.”
[But] by 2007, Gore’s wealth had skyrocketed. By that point he had a net worth “well in excess” of $100 million, including pre-public offering Google stock options, according to an article at Fast Company. MIT scientist Richard Lindzen declared that Gore wanted to become the world’s first “carbon billionaire.” After the Obama administration bloated climate and energy stimulus packages, Gore was on the path to that achievement.
By 2008, Gore was so flush that he announced a $300 million campaign to promote climate fears and so-called solutions. And he just kept raking it in. According to a 2012 Washington Post report, “14 green-tech firms in which Gore invested received or directly benefited from more than $2.5 billion in loans, grants and tax breaks, part of Obama’s historic push to seed a U.S. renewable-energy industry with public money.”
Recent data
The 2007 BBC article came to my attention in the context of the release of the 2024 figures for Arctic Sea Ice Extent in September, i.e. the month when there is usually least ice.
We are now 17 years on from the BBC headline re Arctic summers being ice-free “by 2013”, and 8 years on from Prof Wadhams prediction that the Arctic would be free of ice in summer by 2017 or 2018.
Here is the most recent actual data — as distinct from modelling predictions — at the time of writing:
I am not saying here that there is nothing to be concerned about in relation to Arctic Sea Ice Extent. But what is clear is that the situation does not appear to be anything like as apocalyptic as climate fear-mongerers have predicted.
And unless my search (snapshot of results below) has missed something, the BBC has been rather quiet about the recent relatively encouraging trends. Despite the fact that Jonathan Amos — who wrote the 2007 article — was still reporting3 on climate issues for the BBC in September 2022.
In conclusion
The 2007 BBC article features:
modelling estimates that are much more pessimistic than most
quotations from a scientist whose views are far outside the scientific mainstream4 (with no-one putting the opposite case)
a former US vice president who seemed even then to be using the “climate crisis” to line his own pockets
And when there is more positive news, the BBC doesn’t seem to report it, despite its stated mission “to act in the public interest, serving all audiences through the provision of impartial, high-quality and distinctive output and services which inform, educate and entertain” (emphasis added).
And don’t forget that, 50 years ago this month, this was cover of the Radio Times:
The propaganda didn’t start (or end) with covid.
Dear Church Leaders Archive; some posts can also be found on Unexpected Turns
The Big Reveal: Christianity carefully considered
Here and elsewhere I have, unless indicated otherwise, quoted the text as it appears in the BBC article
Some would say propagandising
In the words of a climate scientist commenting in the Climate Feedback analysis cited earlier