A time of great darkness
Lockdown letters from January 2021
[These are the first emails I wrote to the senior staff at the church I attend. The context is the third UK lockdown, during which it was illegal to meet with others, and a brief 1:1 conversation with the vicar on 27th December 2020. I chose the subject line “a time of great darkness”, which I think has aged well.]
[Monday 11th January 2021]
Dear Church Leaders
Firstly, thank you for the ongoing [online] church services etc. They are a source of light in a time of great darkness.
Secondly, and in the spirit of Proverbs 18:17, I feel compelled to write to you regarding covid. I will try to be succinct.
The disconnect
In short, to those looking closely at the data, it is becoming increasingly apparent that covid PCR test results tell a very different story to real-world observations.
Real-world observations
It is important to put headlines to one side, and to ask how real-world data compares to that for previous winters. Insofar as I can gather, the numbers for 111/999 calls, hospital admissions and critical care bed occupancy are not so very far off the average for winter, the time of the year when the NHS is often described as being in crisis. This is not to deny that some hospitals are under severe pressure, something which is compounded by staff having to self-isolate due to a positive covid test.
But the figure that is most striking is the total death rate. According to the latest ONS data (7th January), the total number of people dying is close to normal for the time of year (see chart on p61 in this report). And this follows a year in which healthcare has been much reduced.
More broadly, you may reasonably look at the chart and wonder why we keep being told that we are in the middle of a pandemic...
Covid PCR testing
The prevailing narrative stands or falls on covid PCR test results. It is thus extraordinary that the test itself has no official false-positive rate. The details are somewhat technical, but the bottom line is that the test would not ordinarily be considered fit for purpose as an NHS diagnostic tool. And yet the whole of government policy has been — and continues to be — based on the results...
It is worth noting here that covid PCR testing is highly profitable business. And that the government has declined to publish details of the testing protocols and data for the different labs in such a way that independent scientists can scrutinise it.
What to conclude?
We have a disconnect. The covid PCR test results tell us that we have an exceptional public health emergency. Real-world observations tell us that we have a situation not significantly different to an average winter. How can both be right? Are we miscounting bodies, or is something up with the test results?
There are credible people who have been looking carefully at the data and saying for months that we now have an epidemic of test results not disease. This is not to say that there is no covid but that many “covid cases” and “covid deaths” have been and are being misdiagnosed.
I will stop here and let you begin to draw your own conclusions. I could write much more, but I think the above is perhaps enough for now :-)
I hope what I have written makes sense. I am more than happy to clarify, to discuss further, and to supply sources if desired.
[Wednesday 13th January 2021]
Dear Church Leaders
My main concern at present is that Christians maintain their reputation for speaking the truth.
It is perhaps not widely appreciated but there is a lot of misinformation out there, much of it from apparently trustworthy sources.
Lockdowns — What evidence is there that lockdowns have any substantial beneficial effect? In reality, they cause massive harm, especially to the poor, and not just in the West but worldwide. (This alone should cause believers deep concern.) There are good reasons why lockdowns were not common practice before 2020. What has changed? Not a lot scientific…
Masks — Where is the evidence that masks are effective in preventing the spread of respiratory viruses? It's only months since the top public health officials were, on the basis of the evidence, instructing us not to wear them. What has changed since? Not a lot scientific…
Controlling the virus — What evidence is there that we can "control" a respiratory virus? "Not much" was the standard answer less than a year ago – hence the original emphasis on "flattening the curve". What has changed since? Not a lot scientific…
Asymptomatic transmission — What evidence is there that asymptomatic transmission is a significant problem? A careful consideration of the data actually tells us that it is not a significant problem. So why do government ministers and public health officials tell us otherwise?
An ongoing pandemic — Where is the evidence that in the UK we are “in the middle of a pandemic”? Even a cursory look at all-cause mortality data tells us that the pandemic was largely over in most parts of England by the summer.
Meeting safely — Where is the evidence that meeting together normally now would be significantly less “safe” than in an average winter?
And finally, covid PCR test results — Where is the evidence that covid PCR test results are giving us reliable information? …I have been involved professionally with the interpretation of a wide variety of scientific data in a broad range of contexts. And I cannot conceive of a scenario in which the covid PCR data is not flawed, and in which there is not mass misdiagnosis. If anyone is presenting evidence that points the other way, I would be interested to see it.
In some ways, data is like Scripture. Correctly handled, it tells us inescapable truth.
I am happy to provide further information, or indeed to be challenged, on any of the above.
I suspect that it is not widely known that the OFCOM restrictions introduced at the height of the pandemic (March 23rd) are yet to be formally lifted. I think it likely that we will look back on recent months as a time of unprecedented media censorship. In the context of media reports, government briefings, and pronouncements from other public figures, Jesus' warnings in Matthew 7:15-20 have been playing on my mind.
Watch out for false prophets. They come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ferocious wolves. By their fruit you will recognize them. Do people pick grapes from thornbushes, or figs from thistles? Likewise, every good tree bears good fruit, but a bad tree bears bad fruit. A good tree cannot bear bad fruit, and a bad tree cannot bear good fruit. Every tree that does not bear good fruit is cut down and thrown into the fire. Thus, by their fruit you will recognise them.
…
I recognise that for those who have relied on the mainstream media for information over recent months, adjusting to reality will take time. And I realise too that it is not easy to be a church leader in this context. Please be assured of my ongoing prayers for wisdom and discernment in this regard.
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